Pelfrey hopes for a rebound in LA

Baseball Betting Lines

07/24/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mike Pelfrey hopes to bounce back from the shortest start of his career this evening when the New York Mets continue their four-game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

Pelfrey could not make it out of the second inning on Monday in Arizona, as the Diamondbacks hammered him for six runs and seven hits in 1 1/3 frames.

It was the third straight loss for Pelfrey, who fell to 10-5 on the year. He is now winless in his last four starts, and has failed to get out of the fifth inning in each of those outings, while surrendering 28 runs in 14 2/3 innings of those starts to balloon his earned run average from 2.71 to 4.01.

"I'm going through one of the worst stretches of my life. I don't know if I've ever had four starts in a row without getting out of the fifth inning," Pelfrey said. "I think tonight was definitely the shortest outing of my life, it's frustrating, I think I've gotten away from establishing the fastball, seems like I'm trying to establish three, four pitches at once, early in the game and that's not who I am. So I need to get back to using the fastball, establishing that to make the other pitches better."

It won't get any easier for the 26-year-old right-hander tonight, as he is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers, who have hit him at a .341 clip.

New York managed a rare road win on Friday, as Johan Santana silenced the Dodgers for seven innings, and the Mets' offense awoke from a two-week slumber in a 6-1 victory at Chavez Ravine.

The Mets were held to four runs or less in each of their previous 13 games, but a balanced attack with the bats and Santana's arm helped the club to their second win in nine games since the All-Star break.

Santana (8-5) surrendered just one run on five hits and a walk to go with four strikeouts in the win. The left-hander has gone at least seven frames and given up one run or less in his last five outings.

Jason Bay went 2-for-4 with three RBI, Ike Davis hit a solo home run, and Jose Reyes doubled, walked, stole a base and scored two runs for the victors.

Vicente Padilla (4-3) took the look despite allowing a mere two runs -- one earned -- on six hits in seven innings for Los Angeles, which won the opener of this four-game series, 2-0, on Thursday.

"Padilla pitched sensational. We just couldn't get any offense going. Santana works fast and you don't get many opportunities against him," Dodgers manager Joe Torre said. "We've been struggling offensively."

Los Angeles, meanwhile, will pin its hopes tonight on righty Carlos Monasterios, who will be making his seventh start of the season. Monasterios has been tremendous coming out of the bullpen for the Dodgers, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 14 appearances. However, he has struggled in his six starts, going 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA.

Monasterios will be making his first-ever start against the Mets, but he did throw two scoreless innings of relief against them back on April 27.

The Mets have lost 10 of 15 games in Hollywood since the 2007 season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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